Switzerland: A note on demographics
Following the minaret ban referendum vote, I wrote that I see this vote as a vote on national identity. That is, that the Swiss voted under the unspoken assumption that Muslims are 'taking over' and will at some point in the future become a majority.
I debated this issue both on this blog and by email with several people, both Muslim and non-Muslims, but nobody ever suggested that this unspoken assumption might be untrue. However, when I tried to gather the data to prove it, I realized that things are not as simple as they seem.
A few caveats first:
1. These number might be under-estimates, since there is a segment of foreigners who do not answer the religion question on the census.
2. I don't know whether the 'population' figure refers to citizens or also foreign residents.
3. Finally, keep in mind that resident foreigners and temporary foreign workers make up about 20% of the Swiss population. It's obvious that most of them are not Muslim, but it does mean that Switzerland has a very high proportion of non-Swiss.
The data I've collected on the number of Muslims in Switzerland:
1970 - < 20,000 ( < 0.3%)
1980 - 50,000 (0.9%)
1990 - 152,200 (2.2%)
2000 - 310,807 (4.26%)
2009 - 400,000 (5.2%)
Proportion of growth (percentage wise):
1970 -> 1980: 2.5
1980 -> 1990: 2.44
1990 -> 2000: 1.93
2000 -> 2009: 1.22 (1.4 using AP's 6% figure)
Proportion of growth (in numbers):
1970 -> 1980: ?
1980 -> 1990: 3
1990 -> 2000: 2.04
2000 -> 2009: 1.3
The Muslim population in Switzeland is growing, but its rate of growth is dropping. If this trend continues, by 2020, the Muslim population will be static.
Even if the rate of growth continues at 1.3 - it will take 90 years until Muslims will be a majority, assuming that the Swiss population remains constant.
Sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. See also Shuarian's Weblog for a demographic map.
No comments:
Post a Comment