Quite a few writers have recently published articles about the future of Europe, looking at various solutions to the problems with its Muslim population. This includes both anonymous blog writers (here and here), as well as more well-known authors such as Daniel Pipes (here).
If in the past it seemed that analyses of this type focused on demographics, today they focus on possible responses by the 'native' European population as it becomes more and more xenophobic.
There are quite a few pitfalls in trying to analyze the future. Taking different forecasts into account, by 2050 the Netherlands will be under water, Europe will be undergoing an ice-age and the world be will be in the midst of a nuclear war. In other words, a flooded, freezing, nuked Europe, with a Muslim majority. That is, if they would still be there .
Putting aside the issue of 'proposed solution' vs. 'trying to forecast what the future might bring', what bothers me with these analyses is that they do not take into account what will happen afterwards.
This article is not going to offer solutions. I think there are quite a few things European countries could do, and I generally write about those options on my blog (see here). Rather, it is an outline and I might update it in the upcoming weeks.
Let's say Europe does not deal with its own problems, that xenophobia and anti-Islam attitudes take over. A possible outcome is that Islam will be outlawed, and any resident of immigrant origin will be forcibly deported or killed. My question is, and then what?
'Solutions' like deportation and genocide remind me of a small child who goes through a tantrum. Ok, so he finally calms down, and then what? The world will probably continue to revolve, Europe would still be facing a serious decimatory threat, and the third world would still be there, looking hungrily towards the West and its job opportunities.
I bring here a few issues to think over.
1. Europe cannot uphold its current lifestyle level without immigration. Will Europe attract anybody after going through a racist upsurge probably inflamed by anti-immigration rhetoric? How many immigrants, of any religion or race, would come to Europe? How many would be left?
2. After its dismal failure in accepting the foreigners who wanted to integrate (Jews), and the likewise failure in accepting the foreigners who didn't want to integrate (Muslims) - will Europe be given another chance?
Given a theoretical assumption that Europe would have a consistently increasing immigrant population that is fully Christian and fully integrated, and that this immigrant population would be non-white. How many people would still talk about the 'demise of the ethnic European'?
3. Will this genocide also extend to the rest of the Muslim world? Are there any volunteers to gas or otherwise murder a billion people? how will such large scale genocide, or deportation, in Europe affect the rest of the world? What would such an attack mean for such small Christian communities like the Copts and Assyrians? Would they survive it?
4. Many European converts are attracted to Islam since they see it as an alternative to Western culture and as the religion of the underdog. These Western immigrants tend to radicalism and terrorism more often than the 'ethnic' Muslims. How would a massive civil war affect the urge to convert? If Islam becomes an illegal religion in Europe, would it attract more or less people?
5. Liberal democracy - the mindset needed for a state to turn against its own citizens in such a way and to massively deport or kill innocents together with subversives, is one of totalitarianism. With the lack of liberal democracy:
- How many people would leave Europe in final disgust and who would be left? Would Europe manage to rebuild itself culturally and economically?
- Who would restore human rights? The US had come to Europe's rescue in the past when totalitarian forces threatened to take over. If the totalitarian force is Europe itself and all Europeans support it, why should the US risk it's neck fighting for Europe's freedoms?
The world continued in its everyday business after the Holocaust, and 60 years later Europe is still dealing with the implications. If Europe once again turns against its own citizens, due to their religion or belief, disregarding the innocence or lack thereof of each victim, I forecast it will take much longer than that to rebuild. Muslims and other minorities will thrive elsewhere, but Europeans would face a much more serious problem.
